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We can gauge the sell-off severity using the Short-Term Holder Cost-Basis and its -1 standard deviation band:

* Short-Term Holder Cost-Basis: $64,300
* Short-Term Holder Cost-Basis -1SD: $49,600

The Spot price nearly reached the -1SD band, with only 7.1% of trading days (364 out of 5139) recording a lower deviation. This highlights the rapid pace of the market decline.
Chooss a Coin For Analysis
Anonymous Poll
13%
ORN
22%
THETA
40%
BONK
21%
MANA
5%
SFP
Trading Crypto Guide
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Here's the Analysis of #BONK :

#BONK is been is moving within a large consolidation range, moving with the trendline and nothing clear at the moment, the support is at $0.00001387. Look for the further opportunities until price reaches the support.
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Anonymous Poll
70%
Yes! I'm super Excited🤩
18%
Missed last one but now completely prepared with spare USDT!🤑
12%
I'm getting geared up now!🚀
Trading Crypto Guide
#BITCOIN WEEKLY TF UPDATE : #BITCOIN on Weekly TF, perfectly rejected from the draw area (Potential Area) lower and we can see a very strong rejection from here. Price again back towards the resistance and also faking sell-offs. Now, its time to look for…
#BITCOIN WEEKLY TF UPDATE :

#BITCOIN on Weekly TF, still getting rejection from the newly support and trying to move up from here. Market looks here from here but a wick fill is expected lower before going up so eyes on wickfills
#BB Analysis :

#BB is a recently listed coin in binance and moving lower after a High is printed. Price flipped the area of support and expected to continue its drop. Alternate way would be a Daily Candle close over the zone will give early signs of reversal.
the percentage of Short-Term Holder Supply held in profit, we can see that just 7% of their supply is held in a profitable position, and is similar to the sell-off in August 2023.

This is also more than -1 standard deviation below the long-term average for this metric, and suggests a notable degree of financial stress amongst recent buyers.
What is #MVRV Ratio ?

The #MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) score is a metric used to assess the #valuation of a cryptocurrency by comparing its market value to its realized value. The #MVRV score helps to gauge whether a cryptocurrency is overvalued or undervalued based on its #historical price movement.

The market value of a #cryptocurrency refers to its current price multiplied by the total supply of #coins in circulation. On the other hand, the realized value takes into account the price at which each coin last moved on the #blockchain, essentially measuring the average price at which investors acquired their holdings.

So what does that Indicate ?

#MVRV Values > 3.5 has generally served as a strong signal for late stage #bull cycles, and heightened probability of heavy #distribution or simple indicate a potential Market Top.

#MVRV Vales < 1.0: indicates that a large cross-section of the #supply is near break-even, or held at a loss. These low values have typically provided strong signal of market capitulation and late stage #bear accumulations or Simply Indicate the Market Bottom.
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Anonymous Poll
48%
JUP
7%
ORN
8%
ALCX
20%
HOOK
17%
STX
Trading Crypto Guide
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Here's the Analysis of #JUP :

#JUP moving within the a large range and now near the major support zone of $0.650 - $0.690. Price looks like it rebalanced and now hopefully we can move up. But the main thing is next week movement will decide the altcoin moves.
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Trading Crypto Guide
#BTC gave a successful close below of the support zone and now retesting zone as resistance. Price also travelling inside the channel pattern., which need to broken yet.
#BTC weekly candle closed with a rejection on both side and its a indecisive candle. Daily candle still rejecting the resistance, so LTF break doesn't matter. Market is more into confusing, better wait for a clear closing over $62,000.
Key pricing levels for active investors:

Active Investor Price: $51.2k
True Market Mean: $45.9k

These levels estimate the average cost basis for currently active investors, discounting lost and dormant coins. The spot price's position relative to these levels can differentiate between bull and bear markets.

The market found support near the Active Investor Price, suggesting buy-side support around long-term cost basis. A decisive break below these levels would necessitate re-evaluating bull market structure and indicate a large proportion of underwater investors.
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Anonymous Poll
18%
LOKA
16%
NFP
32%
AI
38%
MANA
27%
THETA
Trading Crypto Guide
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Here's the Analysis of #MANA :

#MANA is been made a closing below the major support zone and moving back and forth over there around$0.26 - $0.27. Price is been not clear at the moment and need to see a weekly closing.
Trading Crypto Guide
#US30 UPDATE : #US30 perfectly faked out and moved slightly to the upside, you can expected tiny pullback and target the resistance area around 40,000 (Grey Box).
#US30 UPDATE :

#US30 almost got into the pullback and nearly got retested the support zone and moved strongly higher. Price already at a resistance area and kinda rejecting. A Breakout can lead a healthy pullback in the market.
#GOLD ATH 🔥
we evaluated the position of the market relative to levels where investors are likely to be under serious financial pressure. The next step is to assess the investor response, by analyzing the magnitude of losses locked in during the event.

The sell-off triggered a surge in panic by investors, with around $1.38B in realized losses locked in by market participants. In absolute terms, this is the 13th largest event in history on a USD denominated basis.
2025/07/05 21:53:59
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