From the SOPR metric perspective, which measures average profit/loss multiples across investors, we're seeing the first period of loss dominance since October 2024.

However, the structure remains potentially constructive if SOPR finds support at the break-even level of 1.0. Quick, short dips below this equilibrium level suggest investors are buying and defending their cost basis—a typical characteristic of bull markets.

Federal Reserve leaves interest rates unchanged, remains at 4.25% - 4.50%.


#BTC had quick pump dump ✌️

#ETH goes into the consolidation and had a very strong breakout. Well, looking at the market structure its bearish and can dip this week.

#BTC gained some strong moves with #FOMC and had a close over the resistance area around $86,000 area, showing a buyer confidence. Now a retracement and can move higher.

#LINK have a very strong breakout of the pattern and had a retest. With that, retest price moved 13.4% in profits and time to secure some as market is bit uncertain at the moment.

The Short-Term Holder cohort, representing new market demand, has recorded its second-largest negative SOPR print of the cycle, highlighting exceptionally difficult market conditions for new investors. This indicates new investors have realized substantial losses this week, potentially signaling a significant inflection point in overall investor sentiment.

Here's the Analysis of #ATOM :

#ATOM Just moving with the previous dump made, maintaining it bearishness, also with that, Price formed a strong area of support around $3.61 - $3.92 and moving sideways now in LTF. Need to see a break either side or shorting at $5.00 with low risk.

#Bitcoin had some retracement even after the daily candle close and on a support now. Possibly we can see some down moves, as liq. grab and move further higher.

#IO forming a bear flag formation, which is a bearish pattern, and can move lower strongly in case of break below.

The Short-Term Holder cost basis has historically acted as an important reference level across bull-market uptrends. We have calculated the ±1σ bands of the Short-Term Holder Cost-Basis, which have typically acted as a sort of upper and lower bound for local price action.

At the moment, these levels are trading at:

Short-Term Holder Cost-Basis +1σ: $130k
Short-Term Holder Cost-Basis: $92k
Short-Term Holder Cost-Basis -1σ: $71K

This week, the spot price has sold off below the Short-Term Holder Cost-Basis, and is currently trading between this level, and the lower -1σ band.

Here's the Analysis of #MKR :

#MKR is not clear at all just following the resistance line and moving lower. Price holding the strong support zone around $981 - $1014. Buys can be good for scalping purpose and need to wait for the price.

#BITCOIN DAILY TF UPDATE :

#BITCOIN on Daily TF, still moving bearish with a down market structure and forming a bear flag. With that, price forming a sideway and next week we might continue moving lower.

#VANA goes as per then plan and moved higher. Price moved around 52% in profits, leaving behind the rejection area as it is. Time to secure some profits and trail the stops and Resistance is at $9.10 area.

#ETH dipped as per the call as its already at a resistance area and now taking the zone as support. Now it can potential move further higher, if #BTC sustains nearby $85,000.

#BITCOIN WEEKLY TF UPDATE :

#BITCOIN on WEEKLY TF, moved very slowly and barely moved any. the Seller impact still lasting and still in the selling area. Price can have a dip and might move lower. Weekly closing over $85,000 - $86,000 will give slightly relief rally.

#DXY UPDATE :

#DXY again barely moved any side and failing to give closure any side. With that, price might have a rejection and can move lower, which again can lead in rally in the market.

The Active Realized Price strengthens this assessment by providing a more accurate estimate of active investors' cost basis. With trading days historically split 50/50 above and below this metric, it serves as a crucial threshold separating bull and bear markets.

Currently, the Active Realized Price sits at $70,000, aligning with both the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis lower band and the lower boundary of the "air-gap" discussed earlier in the URPD metric. This significant confluence across multiple cost basis indicators makes this price region particularly noteworthy—potentially representing the final line of defense for bulls should a complete market capitulation occur.

in short : The Active Realized Price ($70k) serves as a key bull/bear market threshold and aligns with both the STH-CB lower band and the previously discussed URPD "air-gap" lower bound. This confluence creates a critical support zone that likely represents the bulls' final defense line in case of complete market capitulation.