The chart below visualises the change in percent supply in profit over each calendar year since 2015. Whilst the delineation by year isn't perfect, the classic four year Bitcoin cycle allows us to spot some interesting patterns:

🟠 Bear Floor/Recovery sees the largest increase in supply in profit as coins capitulated near the lows return to profitable territory.

🔵 Early Bull Market where the general uptrend puts the majority of coins in profit, and rallies to new ATHs.

🟢 Euphoric Late Bull where the market is at ATHs, resulting in small positive, to negative readings since all coins are already in profit and the market nears exhaustion.

🔴 Primary Bear following the market peak, as significant volumes of coins fall into loss.

Whilst simple in construction, this framework really highlights the similarities between 2015-16, 2019-20, and the progress of 2023 thus far.

Here's the Analysis of #WRX :

#WRX is been kinda moving confusing moves at the moment, Price already rejected strongly from the Major Resistance Area of $0.26 - $0.27 and might gonna reach the support zone (Grey Box) of $0.19 - $0.20 as there's a ton of liquidity building below it. Buy will come from there so take the setup accordingly.

#BTC did gave a breakout and kinda slow down now and into a retest phrase back to the zone. We need to see Daily candle hodling above the zone, where it cloud ended up in printing a new Higher High. Day by Day we're approaching towards the ETF Dates and hopefully, we'll see some volatility with this to next week, like earlier this week happened. Keep the tight stops over the running trades, movement can kick in either side aggressively.

Today is the 15th anniversary of the Genesis Block, the first #Bitcoin block, mined by Satoshi Nakamoto on the 3rd of January, 2009.

#ETH is been continuously rejecting from Resistance zone around $2400, making it a Major Area now. Price again rejected from there but still hodling the Bullish Market Structure. Expected a Breakout anyways sooner as a ton of liquidity building above those areas. Alternatively, a support is there to hodl it and continue the range.

A relatively new phenomena the last cycle was the outsized role that stablecoins have played in market structure, becoming the preferred quote currency for traders, and a primary source of market liquidity.

Aggregate stablecoin supplies had been in decline since March 2022, falling by -26% from the peak, being a major headwind for market liquidity. This is due to a combination of regulatory pressures (SEC charged BUSD for being a security), capital rotation (preferring US treasuries vs non-interest bearing Stablecoins), and waning investor interest in the bear market.

Market made a very sharp dump right now

Potential Reason for the Dump Could be the #Matripox foresaw the SEC's rejection of the #BitcoinETF at spot # in January and anticipates a potential dip in #Bitcoin, reaching approximately $35,000 before its next upward movement.

What Is a Gray Swan Event?

A Gray Swan event is a term used to describe a foreseeable but unlikely and impactful occurrence that falls between a Black Swan event (unpredictable, rare, and highly impactful) and a White Swan event (common and expected). Gray Swan events are events that are not entirely unexpected but are not considered probable or mainstream.

Example of a Gray Swan Event:

Financial Crisis of 2008:

The global financial crisis of 2008 serves as an example of a Gray Swan event. While there were warning signs and concerns about the stability of the financial system, many considered a widespread collapse unlikely. The complexity of financial instruments and interconnectedness of global markets contributed to the crisis, which had significant and unforeseen consequences.

In this case, the elements leading to the crisis were not entirely hidden, but the severity and global impact were underestimated. The financial crisis is often referred to as a Gray Swan event because, in hindsight, some aspects were foreseeable, yet the extent of the crisis caught many by surprise.

Here's the Analysis of #GALA :

#GALA is been dumped sharply with the market movement and H4 trying to gave a closing below the strong support zone of $0.027 - $0.028. Well, price was inside of the large consolidation, and gave a break now. Most probably, it gonna gave a a short sells opportunity, so eyes on Daily closure and retest.

#BTC goes wild as expected, gave a strong volatile movement, dipping back down towards the Major Support Area of $40,800 - $42,000. Price strongly rejected from Major support, showing buyers confidence, although, price again back inside the range, so continue to do so. More these types of movement ahead, so careful with the movements.

#WRX exactly tapped into the support zone as mentioned and strongly reacted from it. Well, price moved around 8% in favor, and its time to set the stops to BE. Also, price is now at structural Resistance Area, where it reject too, so take partials is also a good decision.

What Is a White Swan Event?

A White Swan event in the financial market refers to a highly foreseeable and expected occurrence. Unlike Black Swan events that are rare and unpredictable, White Swan events are events that market participants generally anticipate due to their regularity or historical precedent.

Example of a White Swan Event in the Financial Market:

Quarterly Earnings Reports:
Quarterly earnings reports released by publicly traded companies are a classic example of a White Swan event in the financial market. These reports are scheduled, anticipated, and provide detailed information about a company's financial performance, including revenue, profits, and future guidance. Investors and analysts typically expect these reports and plan their investment strategies around them.

For instance, if a company is known to release its earnings report on a specific date, investors will prepare for potential market movements based on the outcomes. Positive earnings may lead to a rise in the company's stock price, while disappointing results may result in a decline. Since the timing and content of earnings reports are known in advance, they are considered White Swan events in the financial market. Investors actively incorporate these events into their decision-making processes, and the market usually adjusts accordingly.

A well known example of a White Swan event could be the scheduled and anticipated #Bitcoin halving. The Bitcoin halving is a pre-programmed event that occurs approximately every four years, reducing the rate at which new bitcoins are generated by half. Bitcoin halving's are well-known and expected by the cryptocurrency community because they are part of the Bitcoin protocol. Miners and investors anticipate the impact of this event on the supply and demand dynamics of Bitcoin, making it a White Swan event in the crypto space.

#WRX made a very sharp pump towards the major resistance zone, so book the major profits here 📊

Here's the Analysis of #THETA :

#THETA is been nearly rejected off from the Major Resistance Zone of $1.47 - $1.50. Price made a sharp down with the market condition and Rejecting the Strong Support Zone very Sharply around $1.03 - $1.04. Well, at this point of time, we have to wait for the price, to develop some market structure in H4 TF to take potential buys targeting the Liquidity area/ Major Resistance Zone.

#BTC still moving back and forth inside the range and again rejected from the Resistance Zone, with that price nearly got into Major support again. Well, this series might continue until a strong news drop into the market like #ETF Approval, Rejection or Delay. Hodl on with the new alts trade and manage the running one accordingly.

An Easy and Quick trade in #WRX made a high of $0.30, which is nearly 49% in profit. I Hope you guys secured some the Major Resistance Area. There was a short selling opportunity, as going good too. Potential buys will again come from the Support area.

What Is Hard Peg?

A "hard peg" refers to a fixed exchange rate system in which the value of one country's currency is directly tied to another major currency or a basket of currencies. In a hard peg, the exchange rate is set and maintained rigidly by the government or central bank, and it doesn't fluctuate in response to market forces like supply and demand.

The goal of a hard peg is to provide stability in international trade and financial transactions. However, maintaining a hard peg requires active intervention by the central bank to buy or sell currencies to keep the exchange rate within the specified limits.

An example of a hard peg is a currency board system, where a country's currency is pegged to another major currency, and the central bank holds reserves in that currency to ensure the fixed exchange rate. The Chinese yuan's peg to the U.S. dollar from 1994 to 2005 is another historical example of a hard peg.

Another Example: Tether (USDT) and US Dollar Peg:

Tether (USDT) is a widely used stablecoin in the cryptocurrency market. It is designed to maintain a 1:1 peg to the U.S. dollar. This means that 1 USDT is intended to be equivalent to 1 U.S. dollar.

While Tether doesn't operate under a traditional hard peg system with a central bank, it claims to achieve its peg by holding reserves of U.S. dollars in a 1:1 ratio to the circulating supply of USDT. Users and investors can theoretically redeem their USDT for U.S. dollars at a fixed exchange rate.

It's important to note that the effectiveness of such pegs can be subject to scrutiny and regulatory concerns. The stablecoin market has seen the development of various models, including those backed by fiat reserves, algorithmic stability mechanisms, or a combination of both. The level of decentralization and transparency in maintaining the peg can vary among different stablecoins.