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ES: 06 Sep

The RTH session yesterday mirrored the previous day's price action. The initial hour showed strength, but sellers appeared positioned just below the PD high, leading to a fourth consecutive day of lower highs and lower lows.

As expected, the breach of the PD low at 5515 filled the gap, though the price remained within the gap zone. The VPOC for the past week has shifted to 5532, reflecting ongoing downward pressure from sellers.

For buyers, the main objective is to break the pattern of lower highs and restore market balance. A weak market would continue to trade below the 5530-5540 resistance zone, extending the downside move. Failure to maintain this zone would open up a test of the 5569-5579 resistance area, which sellers need to defend to retain control.

Key Levels:

Support Level: 5532. Sustaining below this level indicates weakness, targeting the unfilled daily gap at 5487.75. Acceptance below 5487 would aim for the daily POC at 5470, and potentially the 5460 area or the August 14th low at 5450.

Resistance Zone: 5558-5565. Holding above 5530 could lead to a cleanup of Tuesday’s poor structure, focusing on this resistance area. Clearing this towards 5584 - 5602

Note: Brokers have significantly increased margin requirements, from $40 to over $400 for micro contracts. This change may lead to reduced volumes and increased volatility. The market's response to the NFP report will be critical in determining future direction.

Good volumes at 5465 - 5475 region. If VPOC shifts down (another 500 move contracts) and if price sustains above VPOC, then a rip up. Else, price might be bogged down by inventory above

VPOC Shifted down. Lets see what happens now!

VPOC Shifts from 5508 to 5475, indicating highest volume zone.
Price sustaining above the VPOC might see upmove. However, we have single prints above—this is the area of trapped longs.
This is a supply zone, thus offering resistance. Hence, if the buying sustains, the liquidity can be chewed out, and price can zoom up towards 5490 and then to 5496 region.
Break of 5466 negates this view

I hope you remember my key advice👆

Those missing volatility should have seen the I min candle at 18:00
5515 - 5470 (45 points candle) in ES.

High identical to 4th Sep Low
Low right above the PPOC from 14th Aug!

So much for visual references!

Love Market Profile

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Let him handle your worst situation and I guarantee you, he won't disappoint🙏

ES: 09 Sep 2024

Markets have a funny way of lulling you into thinking it’s all calm, and then—wham!—you get hit with a big move, especially after a long consolidation. And what do we say about consolidations? The longer they last, the bigger the bang when things finally break loose.

Last week, we saw the market step off a cliff as the 10-day balance area gave way to weakness. Despite sharp fall from highs, Friday decided to add a little more drama after the data release First a 40 point 1 minute candle, and then sharp move down, with prices dropping and filling that gap at 5487.75. But oh no, that wasn’t enough—we even dove through the 5396-5402 gap just for good measure. Now the market's staging its next act.

The Key Level to Watch This Week: 5435. Friday saw sellers dig in their heels here like it was the Alamo. If buyers can bulldoze their way through, we’re eyeing 5445, then 5470, and eventually 5491. Get above 5491, and we might start singing a different tune—something with a little bullish pep.

But if we stay below 5435, it’s likely another round of “Let’s See How Low We Can Go” with 5394 on deck, followed by 5384- 5361.75 - 5322. And if the market really wants to push it, we’ll be paying a visit to the support zone at 5294. Expect some desperate buyers to show up down there, probably wearing sunglasses and hoping no one recognizes them.