ES: 23rd Aug

The market opened with a gap up, confidently stepping above yesterday's range, as if the bulls were ready for a victory parade. But just as quickly, aggressive sellers showed up, raining on their parade and proving that this bullish push had about as much staying power as a Wall Street intern during a market crash. The initial momentum evaporated, showing that the bulls lacked the muscle to hold the line.

Weakness became clear when prices couldn’t stay above the ON high—a crucial level. When the A-period filled the gap, it was a clear sign that the sellers were getting serious. During the B period, prices started to accept back within the prior day's range, a bearish sign—like the big players slipping out the back door just as the crowd starts piling in. The C period confirmed this shift with singles on the chart, showing that buyer interest was fizzling out.

The market, now accepting lower prices, saw sellers push even harder, driving prices down through the cost basis of the last three days until hitting solid buying around 5584-86. Whether this was just traders taking a breather after 2 weeks days of one-time framing up (OTFU) before Powell’s speech or a shift from bullish to bearish sentiment is still up for debate.

Key levels to watch:

Above 5584: Holding this level could mean the bulls have a second wind, targeting 5605 and resistance between 5633 and 5643. Above 5643 is another conversation.
Below 5584: If sellers push past this, look for targets at 5572, 5562, and potentially down to 5526—right at the August 15th gap. Again, filling of this gap would indicate a big shift.
Keep these levels in mind—after all, in trading, it’s not just the cards you're dealt, but how you play them.

ES: Preopen

In the ON session, volume is 100% above the PD close of 5598—meaning inventory is 100 % long. As per Dalton, 2/3rd of the time we see a counterauction when the RTH opens.
We have already poked our head—twice— above 5625 and not accepted so far.

Powell speaks at Jackson hole starting 10:00 EST (or 19:30 IST).

Just observing today till we get some clarity

ES: The week ahead

Summary:

ES experiencing a 12-day rally before slicing down to the critical level of 5584, where it briefly dipped, accumulated inventory, and bounced back.

No one's selling below 5584, indicating strong buying interest. If the market can't hold above this level, expect a potential drop to 5572, 5562, 5548, and 5526.

If the market does hold, it may target the gap zone between 5673 and 5690.25, with a further upside to 5704.25.

Buckle up for a potential wild ride!

ES- 26th Aug Week

Story time:

What’s a chart, really?

Think of a chart as a market map—tracking where wholesalers picked up inventory and how they are distributing it. So, what's the current story on the chart?

After a three-day inventory correction, ES pulled off an impressive rally with 12 days of one-time framing up (OTFU)—a pattern where each day's low is higher than the previous day’s low—shooting up to the 5665 level. Then, in a single swoop, it sliced right through the cost basis of the past few days like a hot knife through butter.

Enter the critical level: 5584. The market briefly dipped below this level, picked up inventory like a bargain hunter on Black Friday, and then shot back up to close at 5598. This was a textbook "look below and fail" at 5584. Since then, the overnight and subsequent trading periods haven’t even come close to testing that level again.

What does this tell us? Nobody's interested in selling below 5584.

So, why does the market fall in the first place? Well, markets drop to find buyers—when sellers can't find buyers at higher prices, they need to lower the price to offload their inventory--which they did from 5666 - 5584. But, below 5584, the buying interest was so intense that sellers didn’t see any reason to push prices lower. Instead, they moved their offers up, trapping shorts and forcing those who missed buying below 5600 to chase the price like a dog chasing a bone on a string, always just out of reach.

Looking ahead to next week:

We’ve got a gap zone between 5673 and 5690.25, where some long positions might be trapped. The market's reaction as we approach this zone will be telling, especially as we move into month-end. If the market needs more supply, those overhead gaps will likely get filled. The trapped longs might be eager to square off, but if the buying pressure remains strong, they might continue lifting their offers or even average up, driving more buying competition. The first target after filling the gap will be 5704.25.

However, if we can’t hold above 5584, we could see a potential drop down to 5572, 5562, 5548, and possibly 5526—right at the August 15th gap.

Buckle up, because it looks like the market is gearing up for another wild ride!

Happy
Krishna janmashtami

NIFTY


Closing on Friday (23.08.2024 ) 24823.15 spot price

What to expect in nifty❓

This week will be event based as well as technicals too.
1️⃣With Iran israel war escalation 🐻
2️⃣Rate cut expectations from fed 🐂
3️⃣Monthly derivatives expiry in nifty ↗️↘️
It will be a rollercoaster 🎢 ride this week
4️⃣New life time high expectations

TECHNICAL SET-UP :

Bearish harmonics is finely poised for the trigger .
Nifty PCR at 1.27

TRADE SET-UP:

NIFTY
Sell when *spot price* levels are in range 24950 to 24960
Stoploss 25080 on closing basis
Targets 🎯
24845 / 24780 / 24710
24634 / 24525 / 24480 below

Update

20% up

Upper Circuit😇

300%

Much more to come😇

Jm financial
Intra

Above orange only🤞

T1 done☘

T2 done☘

Chal Gin gin gin⚡️

#Banknifty back to The Seller Base,

Jaana upr he hai isko bhi but ek pullback mil jaaye toh maauz

#Nifty same Back to ATH supply base

Pullback mil jaaye toh maauz