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BNF 16 May prognosis.jpg
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BNF 16May prognosis
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BNF 16 May prognosis.jpg
Today's trading session in BNF provided a classic example of a 'Look Above and Fail' scenario. BNF opened above the previous day's close, the price managed to creep up and clear the singles at 47950, only to face resistance from trapped longs and sellers, resulting in a downward move for the rest of the day, punctuated by a short bounce towards the close. Overall the value area overlapped to lower, with VPOC and TPOC migrating down.

While it wasn't a trending day, the grinding downward movement created a rotational environment, leading to the development of a prominent Point of Control (PPOC) at 47600. The price action also cleared the singles both on the top (at 47950) and bottom (at 47535), leaving behind a poor low at the latter level. The formation of a 'b' shape profile suggests that this was likely more of a long liquidation or profit booking rather than fresh selling.

Looking ahead to tomorrow, if the price opens and sustains above the previous day's PPOC at 47660, we might encounter resistance at 47900 - 48000 levels. Clearing this resistance zone could pave the way for further upside towards 48050 - 48200. On the other hand, if the price opens and sustains below 47600, it might clear the poor low at 47535. A break below the support at 47500 could lead to further downside towards 47000 - 46900 levels.

Tomorrow's trading session might be crucial in determining whether the market continues its downward rotation or manages to find support and bounce back towards higher levels.
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BNF Balance 16 May.jpg
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BNF Balance zones
Cost basis BNF.jpg
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Balance zones: and cost basis
⚠️Sorry to Ruin The Bulls party!⚠️
But
Today's sharp upmove in The end was an Imbalance move
Price may come Down to Fill it 📉
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BNF 17 May prognosis.jpg
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BNF 17th May prognosis
Yesterday's price action in BNF (Bank Nifty) indeed delivered a classic case of 'Look Above and Fail' while highlighting the significance of visual references. BNF opened significantly higher than the previous day's close, cleared the previous day's high, but immediately encountered strong selling pressure right at the previous week's Point of Control (POC). This led to a rapid decline, stopping at the poor low, which acted as a critical visual reference indicating the sellers hadn't yet probed deeply enough.

Following this initial sharp decline, a customary bounce was followed by another intense sell-off, taking BNF down to 47340 levels swiftly. However, the bulls then gathered momentum, launching a robust 500-point rally only to face resistance once again, and BNF fell back to the previous low. In an impressive display of strength, the bulls dug in deeper and managed to drive the price above the day's high in a breathtaking rally, stopping once again at the previous week's POC of 48050

Key Observations:

1. Outside Day: Yesterday was an outside day, which means the value area extended to both sides with the TPOC (Time Point of Control) and VPOC (Volume Point of Control) migrating upward. This indicates a broadening of the range and increased participation at higher levels.

2. Poor Low at 47340: The poor low left at 47340 signifies that the sellers have not pushed deeply enough. It can also serve as a critical point for buyers to defend in future sessions.

Outlook for Tomorrow:

Given the action-packed trading day and the upcoming long weekend, tomorrow's opening and subsequent price movement will be crucial. Here are the key levels and scenarios to watch:

1. Upside Potential: Sustaining Above 48050: If BNF opens and sustains above 48050, the targets are set at the AB poor high of 48200, followed by 48350, and potentially 48500. This scenario would indicate continued bullish momentum and the clearing of key resistance levels.

2. Downside Potential:Dipping Below 47900: If BNF dips back below 47900, it might lead to the clearance of the poor low at 47340. This move would suggest a continuation of the selling pressure and could target lower support levels.


Yesterday's price action was reminiscent of the dramatic plot of "Karan Arjun." Much like Rakhi losing her sons (the market dipping sharply) and repeatedly chanting "Mera Karan Aayega" (hoping for a recovery), we saw the market ultimately recover dramatically, akin to the triumphant return of Karan and Arjun. Whether we see another dramatic rally or a fresh sell-off, the price action around these key levels will be telling.

Conclusion:

In summary, the market dynamics observed yesterday provide essential insights for tomorrow's trading. The key references remain around the POC levels, with 48050 acting as a pivotal resistance and 47340 as critical support. Traders should watch these levels closely for signs of sustained movement or potential reversals, keeping in mind the broader market sentiment and the impact of the upcoming long weekend.
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