BNF: Macro view 24th June

BNF: Macro view

Often, the gaps or singles left, even for a few ticks, are like the butterfly flapping its wings in Hawaii leading to a hurricane on the US Gulf Coast. The singles left on June 7th at the 49500 level have seen at least two attempts on June 10th and 11th. However, responsive buying above 49500 levels has kept these singles as a testimony of trapped shorts and an anomaly or poor structure which often gets revisited.

From a macro perspective, June 7th to 14th saw the markets moving sideways and balancing. During this period, the value area (or cost basis) overlapped, forming a significant accumulation zone for the wholesalers. The high at 50200 levels was repeatedly tested until it finally broke on June 18th, turning strong resistance into support—unbroken since. Wholesalers, who accumulated enough inventory between June 7th and 14th, stopped supplying, causing trapped shorts to turn buyers and driving the price up. This attracted more wholesalers and retail investors, leading to a 1500-point rally on June 19th. Since then, we have entered a distribution phase.

With hardly any supply at all-time highs, the ones holding inventory are the wholesalers, using trapped shorts to maintain high prices while selling slowly. Trapped longs, hoping for an upward move and with an average buying price much higher than the wholesalers, are likely holding on, unable to compete in selling. If wholesalers don't see enough demand or lack further buying, we might witness a flash sale or an inventory adjustment to attract more buyers.

51300 is a critical level. Below this, new longs might liquidate their inventory, leading to price competition and allowing wholesalers to cut prices faster as their average buying is below 49500 levels. Meanwhile, shorts trapped below are waiting for prices to fall to exit gracefully, providing buying support around the 51200 - 51050 zone.

Key levels to watch:

On the downside: 51200 - 51100 - 50950 - 50700. Below 50700, a sharp move toward cost basis or 49500 levels is possible.

On the upside: Sustaining above 51450 is critical for any upmove, with supply at 51620 and 51800 levels.

banknifty reversal possible

41800 pe 343 to 395

Watchout for the single—indicator of trapped shorts at 51500 levels.
Shorts often provide buying support and hence sharp bounce towards 51620 is possible.

Radico
Intraday

Only above orange🤞

Mmtc
Intraday

Only above orange🤞

Update

T1 done☘

India Cement
Trendline Breakout Retest

Next Sz is marked in Red

Page Industries

on The verge of Breakout
Let's wait for proper Confirmation

Ultratech Cement

Breakouts and now Price is going for Retest

PIIND is struggling

But will see Good Move once Market is Stable

Happiest Mind also near Trendline Breakout area
This Trendline is coming from 2022

Breakout of This will push Price Higher

Index View After 9:45 am!

BNF prognosis 25 June