What's My View for Elections Week?

I am sideways to bearish because everyone is thinking of buying, even the newbies.

A market driven by mass opinion is a rare case.

1. If everyone is buying, then who is selling?

2. The new government will not want the market to fall after coming into power, so they may try to push the market up. However, other active market makers may push the price down, leading to a sideways market.

3. Premium prices are too expensive for strangles. Therefore, adjustments might be done, benefiting option sellers as they can earn a handsome amount with limited risk of upside since prices are already at 1200-1300. How much higher can they go? Do you think experienced traders will buy options at such expensive prices where the upside is limited due to inflated prices?

4. Look at the 2019 post-election effect (marked area). The market was sideways for a few days, then down.

5. In case Congress wins, I don't think the market will take it positively as it is an unlikely event.

PS- My view is more driven by psychology than technicals.

Don't do option buying (at least until the 6th or 7th of June) until premiums settle.

I marked a position in all three to show you the difference between buying and selling:

The first one is an option selling position.
The second one is a futures position.
The third one is an option buying position.

PS: just an advice

Ek bade option seller se poocha hai yeh sawaal let's see what reply comes..

do wait for mss

favouring option sellers.
i am avoiding buying

No reply came so i did this, update giving approx 80 points now..

Now this would give loss if ..

Market expires too down as there monthly pe will start trading in discount due to chance of reversal..

Market expires too high , and monthly premium would reduce less than 150.. still this is less probability..

In between anywhere I would be in profit..

Would either exit today or on Monday as the case may be..

Moved very precisely from the given level.
1st move almost done

bank nifty bullish mai kahin yeh to nahi ban raha

and same level resistance as per previous highs, weekly chart

case 1 done✅

bearish view mai fall from upper blue line of channel, breaking red ine and white line for targets of 43000

Uminder Singh:
All polls out NDA approx 370 seats , let's see what happens on Monday..

Remember .. volatility can be high with sudden spikes ...

I remember once on an RBI policy day premiums of call were like .. 320 , spiked 280 , 340... 360 .. 380 spiked 315 ... 370....


You know what was happening , market was bullish ..

Call buyers k SL ho rahe they..

But in actual the main reason was put shorters k SL karwa k position banaani thi, future buyers k SL karwa k position banaani thi..

Call buyers to iske chakkar mai sl kha rahe they..

And this down spike and back same price that too more than 10 to 20 % down and back was in a flash..

Baaki market can surprise anytime.. hum jise samajh rahe ki acha hai market already priced in Hui toh..
Obiviously surprise..

Also har stock nahi bhagega..

Selected hi bhagenge..

Aur wo selected stocks ye ho sakte🙈