BNF: 29th May

Quick Prognosis for 29th May BNF:

Profile Analysis:

Profile Shape: BNF developed a 'b' shape profile yesterday, indicating long liquidation.
Poor Low: Presence of a poor low suggests that sellers haven’t fully explored the downside, indicating possible support at this level.
Value Area: The price stayed within the previous day's range and value area, leading to overlapping value areas with TPOC and VPOC remaining at similar levels as the previous day.
PPOC: Positioned at 49300, making this a critical level for support/resistance.

Key Levels to Watch:

Upside:

49300: If the price opens and sustains above this level, it could act as a strong support.
49500 - 49700: Targets on the upside if 49300 is held.

Downside:

Below 49300: If the price opens and sustains below this level, it might turn into a resistance zone.
49050: A critical level where a failed auction and a poor low are situated, likely providing strong support.
48850 - 48400: Further support levels if 49050 is breached.

Summary:

Critical Level: 49300 is the key level to monitor, acting as a wall of support/resistance.
Above 49300: Targets towards 49500 and 49700.
Below 49300: Watch for potential clearance of 49050 with support at 48850 - 48400.

48900 monthly expiry level..
Market at 48900 .. premium theory job done , ab 10.30 k baad yeh kahi jaaye it's preparation for next week..

Due to election June premiums are too high.. so won't be able to calculate June monthly expiry levels as per previous months.. 😔😔

Observing for next move

Deep ITMs calls of bank nifty still in discounts. But this concepts hold good if noticed in morning..

BNF prognosis 30th May

This morning, BNF opened with a gap down below the key level of 49050. It initially found support at the 48800 zone but continued a grinding down move, creating a double distribution profile and making a low of 48401—confirming the expectations from the morning analysis.

Today's trading saw an imbalance move after two days of balanced trading, leading to a lower value area with TPOC and VPOC migrating down. The single print at 48780 created the double distribution, marking the first hurdle for any potential upmove.

For tomorrow, the key levels to watch are:

Upside:

48780: This is the first hurdle for any upmove. Sustaining above this level can lead to testing the gap at 49050.
49050: After filling the gap, the next significant resistance is at the back-to-back PPOCs around 49300.

Downside:

48300: Immediate support level.
48100 - 48150: Back-to-back PPOCs providing substantial support.
47750: Further support level if the above levels are breached.

Given the imminent election results, the increased volatiltiy is reflected in the ATM straddle with 2000+ points. The market is likely to squeeze the straddle premium to as much possible before the real volatility hits post the exit polls on Monday and tandav begins

Have a great trading day

Nifty targets are coming 24400 / 34600 upside and 20200/18600 downside.. charts won't explain much but still sharing. The video which I made has a YouTube link so I can't share it here. The analysis which I did has started from year 1990 on monthly time frame .

Just a point that this is monthly chart , for finding out immediate targets as for election result day we need to look into lower time frames

What's My View for Elections Week?

I am sideways to bearish because everyone is thinking of buying, even the newbies.

A market driven by mass opinion is a rare case.

1. If everyone is buying, then who is selling?

2. The new government will not want the market to fall after coming into power, so they may try to push the market up. However, other active market makers may push the price down, leading to a sideways market.

3. Premium prices are too expensive for strangles. Therefore, adjustments might be done, benefiting option sellers as they can earn a handsome amount with limited risk of upside since prices are already at 1200-1300. How much higher can they go? Do you think experienced traders will buy options at such expensive prices where the upside is limited due to inflated prices?

4. Look at the 2019 post-election effect (marked area). The market was sideways for a few days, then down.

5. In case Congress wins, I don't think the market will take it positively as it is an unlikely event.

PS- My view is more driven by psychology than technicals.

Don't do option buying (at least until the 6th or 7th of June) until premiums settle.

I marked a position in all three to show you the difference between buying and selling:

The first one is an option selling position.
The second one is a futures position.
The third one is an option buying position.

PS: just an advice

Ek bade option seller se poocha hai yeh sawaal let's see what reply comes..

do wait for mss